Saturday, 21 November 2015

US-China battle for Asean - where do we stand?

by Koh Jun Lin     Published 21 Nov 2015    Source : Malaysiakini

While Malaysia plays to both sides as the United States and China jockey for influence in the Asean region, Klang MP Charles Santiago warned that Malaysia will not be able to keep this up forever.

Charles said China has not has not been sitting idly while the US tried to solidify its influence through the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), but instead has been bankrolling projects around the Asean region, including in Malaysia.

This can be expected to intensify next year, he said, if Malaysia’s economy grows weaker and the government is forced to cut its budget further.


“So, as (Prime Minister) Najib Abdul Razak gets even more shakier, China becomes closer to Malaysia. This dynamic has to be dealt with.

“At some point, the country has to show its card: Where do you stand? Laos has said it stands with China. Cambodia has said so clearly it is with China. Thailand is like, um… playing the game of poker, which is also what Malaysia is doing.

“But more and more now, the fight is getting more serious,” Charles told a press conference in Petaling Jaya yesterday.

Already, he said, China is pouring money into the Iskandar Malaysia project in Johor and the undersea tunnel project linking Penang Island and with the peninsula.

In addition, Malaysia and Singapore are at loggerheads over who should build the High Speed Rail project linking the two countries. Malaysia wants a Chinese company to underwrite the project, while Singapore wants a Japanese consortium to take over the project.

Further afield, China is also sponsoring infrastructure projects in Laos, including controversial dam projects along the Mekong River.

China has also been buying raw materials and resources in Africa by offering to pay for infrastructure projects, Charles said, but those goods need to be shipped through the South China Sea in order to reach China.

This is why control of the sea is important to China, which is now embroiled in a territorial disputes in the South China Sea with several Asean countries, including Malaysia.

On the other hand, the 12-country TPPA serves to ‘lock-in’ US support from the four Asean countries involved, namely Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and Vietnam.

The Philippines is also almost certain to join the TPPA, bringing the tally to five out of 10 Asean countries, he said.

The TPPA also serves as a counter to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) that is currently being negotiated between 16 countries, including all 10 Asean countries and China.

The RCEP, he said, is largely similar to the TPPA, except that it is not legally binding.
 
Seen as a progressive Muslim nation

Charles said in the US’ perspective, Malaysia is an insignificant trading partner due to the small size of its market, but the country has immense strategic value in the Asean region.

“(Malaysia) can play an important role in Asean. It is seen as a progressive Muslim nation, multi-racial in character, supposedly democratic. So it’s all nice, it’s how things should be. It can stand and put a front against China.

“But China is not stupid. They are paying for your projects, which makes a big difference,” he said.

To Charles, what convinced him that the US wanted Malaysia in the TPPA solely for security reasons is how the superpower had dealt with bumiputera policies in the agreement.

As a member of the bipartisan parliamentary caucus on the TPPA, he said he has met US Trade Representative Michael Froman and other US diplomats on many occasions since the TPPA negotiations began.

The US trade representative is equivalent to a minister of international trade in other countries.

Charles said that in numerous meetings with the caucus members, Froman and the diplomats had been gung-ho about dismantling Malaysia’s pro-bumiputera affirmative action policies through the TPPA, particularly its chapters on state-owned enterprises and government procurement.

However, in the end, significant concessions were made in these areas due to intense pressure from Umno MPs on International Trade and Investment Minister Mustapa Mohamed.

Charles said the Umno MPs had been lobbying to be allowed to vote on the TPPA based on their own conscience, instead of being forced to support it by the party whip.

“The bumiputera policies are intact. That’s what the Americans wanted to change, but they have completely flipped.

“I’d step back and ask: After really arguing the case for opening up, suddenly you do a number. What is it that you have in mind? What is it that you are pushing towards?

“It was very clear that the only thing that the US wants Malaysia for is to stand against China, or at least play a neutral game with China. That’s what leads me to think so. I don’t see any other reason,” Charles said.
 
He added that this is also consistent with a speech by US Defence Secretary Ash Carter in April.
"TPP would also lower barriers on American goods and services in the Asia-Pacific’s fastest growing markets. But TPPA also makes strong strategic sense, and it is probably one of the most important parts of the rebalance, and that’s why it has won such bipartisan support.

"In fact, you may not expect to hear this from a US secretary of defence, but in terms of our rebalance in the broadest sense, passing TPP is as important to me as another aircraft carrier.

"It would deepen our alliances and partnerships abroad and underscore our lasting commitment to the Asia-Pacific. And it would help us promote a global order that reflects both our interests and our values," Carter is quoted as saying in an official transcript of the speech.

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